Bruce Bueno de Mesquita on predictions (a TED presentation)

There’s a new video on TED’s website by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita.

I think one of the interesting lessons to take away from this presentation is that the science of prediction relies on understanding the position of many contributing influencers - not just thought leaders themselves.  Bruce makes the point that leaders can’t possibly keep up with flow of information.  Leaders may be ambiently aware of issues (and sometimes not even that), but are not directly plugged in.  This is because consuming information and making informed decisions is nearly impossible when the information surrounding those issues begin to multiply.  It’s information overload.  So leaders rely on (hopefully) smart people to help them make decisions for them.  And so, the real key is to understand the strata below the key influencer.

And if the strata below the key influencer is so critical, then one good way to have an issue heard or a belief practiced is to hopefully “bring on board” a critical mass.  At the very least, understanding the motivations of those strata will help you better understand where things are going in your environment.

Deep!